When it comes to alternative betting markets politics is often not the most exciting proposition. But that has radically changed in the last year. The shock decisions of Brexit and election of Donald Trump has brought politics into the gazes of us predictors. When there are shock results and political instability it is bad for politics but great for gambling. The uncertainty breeds possibilities for wider odds gains.
In the UK, we are still existing in the aftermath of a hung parliament which was inconceivable when the campaigning begun. Theresa May called a snap election thinking that she would have a comfortable win and even extend her majority.
In a matter of weeks she realised her catastrophic mistake that saw Jeremy Corbyn take advantage and increase Labour’s presence by 30 seats. Now we are in a hung parliament where the conservatives are planning on forming a government with the DUP of Northern Ireland.
There have already been calls for Theresa May to stand down as Prime Minister from opponents and some say her position is untenable. While she clings on it is only a matter of time that she pays for her arrogance and then there will be another opportunity for a new leader.
A new leader means odds and there are already plenty rolling in from the bookmakers.
If conservatives lose confidence in Theresa May a leader will emerge from their own ranks. The highest profile name and one with the odds-on chances is Boris Johnson. He is 5/2 with William Hill. While he has personality and a notable following his mistakes are beginning to pile up. The only thing playing into his hands is that he was for Brexit and would therefore be more comfortable negotiating to leave. Unfortunately for Boris as the former Mayor of London he is under increasing scrutiny after a series of tragic events in the city. Many point to cuts on Police and Fire services he made as a direct issue after the terrorist attacks and more recently the Grenfell Tower fire.
Elsewhere in the conservatives many viewed Amber Rudd as having a bit more bite and courage than May. She represented May at the leader debate and showed more leadership in some cases than the actual leader. David Davis is also a possibility and he has certainly been appearing a lot in the media and this raised profile will bring him into the eyes of the bookies. Betway for instance have him at 9/2.
While the 2017 General Election was a disaster overall there was one or two wins for the Tories. They all came in Scotland, where they dented the influence of the SNP. The Scottish conservative leader Ruth Davidson has been earmarked for future leadership and her popularity both in politics and in the media means she has only made a case for her to lead stronger. The rest of the conservatives performance was not as successful though and has left them dealing with the DUP. Ruth Davidson would unlikely be able to govern with a group with such strong views on LGBTQ rights as a gay woman herself.
Thus, we come to the elephant in the article. Jeremy Corbyn is currently second in the odds charts after Boris Johnson. If the current government struggles and a disaster looms there is a real possibility of a new election or a progressive alliance coalition. Both of these options will play into Corbyn’s hands. That is why bookmakers have him on 5/2 to be the next Prime Minister.
While another general election is an exciting prospect for the media and political fans alike it is the most unlikeliest outcome. Instead a vote of no confidence in Theresa May will result in a new prime minister coming from within the government. Betting Tip Stars think that Amber Rudd will be rising up through the odds when Boris begins to fall as scrutiny intensifies. The conservatives will likely want to stick with a woman PM but with Ruth Davidsons issues with the DUP, that will leave only Amber Rudd! Betfair have her at a nice round 10/1.